Impact of climate change on food security in India: an evidence from autoregressive distributed lag model

Biswabhusan Bhuyan (), Ranjan Kumar Mohanty () and Subhamitra Patra ()
Additional contact information
Biswabhusan Bhuyan: Department of Economics, Maharaja Purna Chandra (Autonomous) College
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty: Xavier Institute of Management, XIM University
Subhamitra Patra: Goa Institute of Management

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 3, No 29, 6349-6369

Abstract: Abstract Food security is a critical global issue, particularly in India, and it is further exacerbated by the challenges posed by climate change. This study aims to examine the influence of climate change on food security in India, utilizing annual time series data spanning from 1994 to 2019. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, the study investigates the relationship between climate variables, area under cultivation, population growth, agricultural subsidies, and food production. The findings indicate that expanding the cultivation area for food crops significantly enhances food security, with a 1% increase leading to a 2.4% increase in the short run and a 3.2% increase in the long run. Conversely, population growth has a detrimental effect on food security, with a 1% increase resulting in a decline of 3.8% in the short run and 7.8% in the long run. Climate variables also play a crucial role, as rising temperatures adversely impact food security, leading to a decrease of 1.2% in the short run and 1.7% in the long run for every 1% temperature increase. Rainfall, on the other hand, does not significantly affect food security in the long run, but a decrease in rainfall in the preceding period negatively impacts food security in the short run. Furthermore, agricultural subsidies, particularly fertilizer subsidies, impact food security positively in the short run but have adverse effects in the long run. The study highlights the importance of sustainable land management, temperature control measures, water reservation, and effective agricultural subsidies to address food security challenges. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective strategies to ensure food security in India.

Keywords: Food security; Temperature; Rainfall; Fertilizer subsidies; ARDL; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 Q11 Q15 Q18 Q25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-04139-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04139-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04139-3

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().