Impact of carbon emissions and GDP on air quality: forecast from 20 regions of China

Yongtong Li () and Lifeng Wu ()
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Yongtong Li: Hebei University of Engineering
Lifeng Wu: Hebei University of Engineering

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 3, No 55, 7063-7089

Abstract: Abstract In recent years, China has proposed to harmonize the development of economy and environment, as well as reduce pollution and carbon emissions to achieve the “double carbon” target. These programs have significantly improved regional air quality. In this paper, the regional GDP and carbon emissions are used as influencing factors to predict the air quality of provinces in seven geographic divisions of China. Four scenarios are set up in this paper. The grey multivariate convolutional model with priority accumulation of new information is adopted to predict the Air Quality Composite Index for provinces. The results show that most provinces have harmonized economic and environmental development, and it is better to synergize the pollution and carbon reduction programs. However, some provinces have economic and environmental incompatibilities, such as Jilin and Guangxi. Some provinces have the problem of uncoordinated pollution reduction and carbon reduction, such as Beijing and Shanghai. In response to these problems, this paper proposes corresponding recommendations.

Keywords: Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals; Synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon; Grey multivariate model; Air quality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04180-2

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