Spatiotemporal evolution of tourism ecological security alerts: evaluation and trend prediction

Bin Zhou (), Lu-ting Wang (), Hu Yu () and Yu-xin Wang ()
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Bin Zhou: Ningbo University
Lu-ting Wang: Ningbo University
Hu Yu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yu-xin Wang: Ningbo University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 3, No 71, 7502 pages

Abstract: Abstract Tourism ecological safety (TES) warning is of great significance for eco-environmental protection and low-carbon development. We constructed a early warning index system of TES for the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), building on the pressure-state-response social-economic-environment framework model and used the entropy-based technique for order of preference (TOPSIS) method. The spatiotemporal grid of tourism eco-security warning in YRDUA from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed, using the entropy-based TOPSIS method and spatial Markov chain. The results indicated that from 2007 to 2019, the average value of TES posting progress, Ci, of YRDUA increased from 0.3869 to 0.5649, portraying an overall upward trend. The corresponding TES warning level of “heavy warning”-level cities continued to decrease, whereas that of the “light warning” and “medium warning”-level cities dominated gradually. Further, the spatial spillover effect of the evolutionary of the level of TES in YRDUA portrayed a continuous increase, and we also observed a “club convergence” phenomenon in the spatiotemporal transfer of the alarm situation. Moreover, the TES of YRDUA during 2021–2028 portrayed a “light” warning state, and the warning level of the Suzhou-Shanghai area was not as optimistic. This paper can serve as a guide for the regulation of potential risks related to TES for tourism destinations not just in China but also other countries.

Keywords: Tourism ecological security alerts; Spatiotemporal evolution; Trend prediction; Pressure-state-response social-economic-environment (PSR-SEE); Spatial spillover effect; Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04202-z

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