Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand

Nawhath Thanvisitthpon (), Arisara Nakburee, Panita Saguansap and Prinya Mruksirisuk
Additional contact information
Nawhath Thanvisitthpon: Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi
Arisara Nakburee: Kasetsart University
Panita Saguansap: Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi
Prinya Mruksirisuk: Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 6, No 93, 14754 pages

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this research is to project climate change-induced rainfall for three future periods using three dynamically downscaling regional climate models (RCM1–RCM3) based on three respective global climate models: ICHEC-ECEARTH, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR and NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M. The projections are carried out under two representative concentration pathways: RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The three future periods include near- (2022–2040), mid- (2041–2060) and far-future (2061–2099). The study area is Thailand’s central province of Pathumthani, which is a low-lying area and prone to flash flooding. The projected climate-induced rainfall is measured by five future extreme climate indexes: consecutive dry days (CDD), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20), consecutive wet days (CWD), and maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). The findings show that Pathumthani is increasingly susceptible to future flooding, as indicated by lower CDD and higher CWD. The lower CDD (decreasing from 77 days to 38–45 days) and higher CWD (increasing from 7 days to 21–22 days) suggest that Pathumthani is more likely to have more rainfall in the future. In addition, land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributes to persistent flooding in the province. The province’s rapid urbanization results in higher susceptibility to flooding as agricultural land is converted into urban infrastructure, commercial, industrial and residential areas. The conversion of repetitively flooded agricultural areas into urban areas also aggravates the flood situation. To mitigate the impact of climate change-induced floods, provincial authorities should implement non-structural anti-flood strategies (i.e., flood adaptation strategies), in addition to existing structural anti-flood measures. This research is the first to employ the dynamically downscaling regional climate models and LULCC to project future rainfall and flood risks. The projection techniques are also applicable to different geographical settings that are prone to flooding.

Keywords: Future Extreme Climate; Land Use and Land Cover Change; Urban Flooding; Repetitive flood (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-024-05117-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().