Analysis of gravity movement and future projections of greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea

Hoseok Nam, Hyungseok Nam () and Doyeon Lee
Additional contact information
Hoseok Nam: Busan Development Institute
Hyungseok Nam: Kyungpook National University
Doyeon Lee: Hanbat National University

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 8, No 91, 20289-20319

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the shifting patterns of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across 17 administrative regions in South Korea from 2000 to 2020, analyzing their movement and the underlying driving factors. Using the center of gravity method, the GHG emission center shifted northwest toward capital regions mainly due to zone 2 and 3 related to industrial activities and urbanization during the four distinct phases. National trends in GHG emission changes were assessed using the LMDI method, revealing that economic development and population effects were the primary drivers of emission increases, while energy intensity and fossil fuel effects mitigated emissions. Regionally, energy intensity and population effects are the two main driving factors positively and negatively influencing GHG emissions. Cluster analysis identified four distinct groups of regions; urban efficiency (Cluster 1), economic development with low fossil fuel use (Cluster 2), industrial reliance (Cluster 3) and administrative low-emission (Cluster 4). Projection models show varying future emission trajectories by 2030, 567.2, 637.9, and 708.7 million tCO₂eq. in the advanced, moderate, and business-as-usual scenarios, respectively. Still further aggressive emission reduction measures are required to meet 436.6 million tCO₂eq. of 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution target. Investigation of national and regional energy consumption structures would help establish policies for sustainable development among local governments.

Keywords: Greenhouse gas emission; Gravity movement; Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis; South Korea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-025-06003-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s10668-025-06003-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10668

DOI: 10.1007/s10668-025-06003-y

Access Statistics for this article

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development is currently edited by Luc Hens

More articles in Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().