Emissions scenarios database and regional mitigation analysis: a review of post-TAR mitigation scenarios

Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mikiko Kainuma, Reina Kawase and Yuzuru Matsuoka
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Tatsuya Hanaoka: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Mikiko Kainuma: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Reina Kawase: Kyoto University
Yuzuru Matsuoka: Kyoto University

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 2006, vol. 7, issue 3, No 14, 367-389

Abstract: Abstract The objectives of this study were to carry out a review of mitigation scenarios that have emerged since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), to update the current Emissions Scenarios Database with these scenarios, and to analyze emissions and mitigation scenarios. This article first discusses the characterization of mitigation scenarios and systematically classifies mitigation scenarios. Second, quantitative analyses on gross domestic product (GDP), population, carbon intensity, energy intensity, and carbon taxes are conducted at the regional level in the four regional aggregations used by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Results show that the range of emissions trajectories is extensive and that the maximum potential mitigation of global CO2 emissions from the baseline level by 2100 is around 95%. There is a correlation between GDP growth and energy intensity improvement. The relationship between energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity reduction changes over the 21st century, with energy intensity improvement outweighing carbon intensity reduction in the first half of the century and carbon intensity reduction becoming more dominant in the latter half. Predicted carbon tax levels for 2100 range from around 50 to 1400 US$/t-C, although a uniform level of carbon tax brings about widely varying CO2 mitigation outcomes across different regions. The range of GDP loss, resulting from CO2 emissions mitigation, varies from −10% to 40% in 2100, with GDP losses in developing regions more evident than those in developed regions.

Keywords: Greenhouse gases; Emission scenarios; Mitigation scenarios; Integrated assessment models; Database (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1007/BF03354008

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