Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

Todd S. Bridges, Daniel Kovacs, Matthew D. Wood, Kelsie Baker, Gordon Butte, Sarah Thorne and Igor Linkov ()
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Todd S. Bridges: US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory
Daniel Kovacs: Decision Partners, LLC
Matthew D. Wood: US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory
Kelsie Baker: US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory
Gordon Butte: Decision Partners, LLC
Sarah Thorne: Decision Partners, LLC
Igor Linkov: US Army Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2013, vol. 33, issue 3, 376-390

Abstract: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.

Keywords: Climate change; Mental Modeling; Expert Model; Environmental assessment; US Army Corps of Engineers; Risk management; Risk communication (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10669-013-9461-6

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