Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Andjelka Kelic (), Zachary A. Collier, Christopher Brown, Walter E. Beyeler, Alexander Outkin, Vanessa N. Vargas, Mark A. Ehlen, Christopher Judson, Ali Zaidi, Billy Leung and Igor Linkov
Additional contact information
Andjelka Kelic: Sandia National Laboratories
Zachary A. Collier: US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Christopher Brown: Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Walter E. Beyeler: Sandia National Laboratories
Vanessa N. Vargas: Sandia National Laboratories
Mark A. Ehlen: Sandia National Laboratories
Christopher Judson: Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Ali Zaidi: Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Billy Leung: Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Igor Linkov: US Army Engineer Research and Development Center

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2013, vol. 33, issue 4, 544-560

Abstract: Abstract Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.

Keywords: Agent-based modeling; Multicriteria decision analysis; Input/output modeling; Cybersecurity; Macroeconomics; Critical infrastructure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-013-9479-9 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:33:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-013-9479-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/journal/10669

DOI: 10.1007/s10669-013-9479-9

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environment Systems and Decisions from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().