Calculating nuclear accident probabilities from empirical frequencies

Minh Ha-Duong and Venance Journé
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Venance Journé: CNRS

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2014, vol. 34, issue 2, 249-258

Abstract: Abstract Since there is no authoritative, comprehensive and public historical record of nuclear power plant accidents, we reconstructed a nuclear accident data set from peer-reviewed and other literature. We found that, in a sample of five random years, the worldwide historical frequency of a nuclear major accident, defined as an INES level 7 event, is 14 %. The probability of at least one nuclear accident rated at level ≥4 on the INES scale is 67 %. These numbers are subject to uncertainties because of the fuzziness of the definition of a nuclear accident.

Keywords: Nuclear accidents; Frequencies; Nuclear power; Industrial history; Bootstrap; INES scale (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s10669-014-9499-0

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