Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions

Aleksandar S. Jovanović (), Peter Klimek () and Flor A. Quintero
Additional contact information
Aleksandar S. Jovanović: Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies – R-Tech
Flor A. Quintero: Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies – R-Tech

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2015, vol. 35, issue 4, 521-531

Abstract: Abstract In a context of volatility in the oil price and with the impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the sustainable growth of the aviation is conditioned by the environment, economy and technical efficiency. In order to overcome these issues, new alternative fuels and biofuels could be an alternative to established technologies. In this study, a dynamical competition model for aviation fuel substitution has been developed. Investment and market factors are modeled by the Lotka–Volterra dynamical system for the substitution of fossil by alternative fuels. The model calculates the dynamics of Jet A-1, gas-to-liquid (GtL)/coal-to-liquid (CtL) and biomass-to-liquid (BtL) market shares up to the year 2030. In particular, the model looks at the use of carbon capture sequestration for GtL/CtL and the indirect land use change for BtL. Three main scenarios (high/low environmental incentives and business as usual) based on input data provided by the partners of the FP7 Alfa-Bird Project (2012) consortium were developed in 2012, and according to these scenarios, alternative fuels appeared to be competitive in the near term. Current collapse in oil prices, however, removes one of the key drivers that supported alternative fuel development in recent years: energy scarcity and security concerns, and as a consequence, it delays in this way the competitiveness of alternative fuels with respect to Jet A-1. This has been quantified in the present paper, and the respective conclusions were drawn.

Keywords: Alternative fuels; Lotka–Volterra; Forecasting; Fuel prices; Aviation; Scenario modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-015-9573-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:35:y:2015:i:4:d:10.1007_s10669-015-9573-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/journal/10669

DOI: 10.1007/s10669-015-9573-2

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environment Systems and Decisions from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().