Generation capacity expansion economic-environmental planning under uncertainty of demand and supply

Zeinolabedin Sadeghi (), Yahya Hatami, Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei and Amir Abdollahi
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Zeinolabedin Sadeghi: Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Yahya Hatami: Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei: Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Amir Abdollahi: Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2020, vol. 40, issue 4, 544-559

Abstract: Abstract This article puts forth a multi-objective power development planning model to examine changes in production decisions and carbon dioxide pollution under uncertainty in demand and supply of electricity. The lack of certainty of demand and the coefficient of electricity production capacity (supply uncertainty) were expressed as a fuzzy set, and a multi-objective fuzzy model was used for a case study of Kerman province, Iran power generation capacity expansion planning system for a 12-year period. The results of the study showed that in order to meet demand and to ensure the economic (minimizing production costs) and environmental (minimizing the costs of carbon dioxide pollution) objectives at the same time under the uncertainty of demand and production capacity coefficient, the capacity of Onshore Wind and hydropower technology along with coal fuel should be respectively expanded for about 1000, 938.130, and 163.720 MW. However, as far as only economic goals are concerned, the plan will include the increase of 1127 MW of coal energy production. Furthermore, to meet environmental goals, 1000, 1000, and 500 MW of renewable, wind and hydropower, and photovoltaic technologies are expected in the plan. Finally, the results of the simultaneous provision of economic and environmental objectives regardless of the uncertainties showed the expansion of the capacity of wind, coal, and water technologies to 1000, 542.860, and 140.560 MW, respectively. The difference in results reveals the importance of integrated and comprehensive planning for the expansion of power generation capacity. Therefore, decision makers can continue the sustainable planning of electricity production capacity expansion in terms of uncertainty about the demand side and supply and in the context of a comprehensive economic and environmental framework.

Keywords: Planning of expansion of generation capacity; Uncertainty of demand and supply; Carbon dioxide pollution; Multi-objective fuzzy programming model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10669-020-09758-z

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