Systems analysis for energy assets of Iraq influenced by water scarcity

Megan C. Marcellin (), Gigi Pavur (), Davis C. Loose (), John J. Cardenas (), David Denehy (), Mustafa Almashhadani (), Saddam Q. Waheed (), Benjamin D. Trump (), Thomas L. Polmateer (), Igor Linkov (), Venkataraman Lakshmi () and James H. Lambert ()
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Megan C. Marcellin: University of Virginia
Gigi Pavur: University of Virginia
Davis C. Loose: University of Virginia
John J. Cardenas: United States Agency for International Development
David Denehy: United States Agency for International Development
Mustafa Almashhadani: United States Agency for International Development
Saddam Q. Waheed: Ministry of Water Resources
Benjamin D. Trump: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Thomas L. Polmateer: University of Virginia
Igor Linkov: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Venkataraman Lakshmi: University of Virginia
James H. Lambert: University of Virginia

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2024, vol. 44, issue 2, 259-279

Abstract: Abstract Water security in arid and semi-arid Middle Eastern climates has been severely impacted by effects of climate change such as reduced precipitation, diminished storage, increased evapotranspiration, and prolonged heat waves. These climate effects are compounded in Iraq, where populations, agriculture, industry, and energy rely heavily on varying transboundary water flows to meet water demands. Iraq’s most profitable sector, energy, is especially threatened by insufficient water supply, which complicates government decision making in energy infrastructure development. The goal of this paper is to develop a scenario-based multi-criteria analysis framework to prioritize infrastructure investments in the context of climate change and scarcity of natural resources. Infrastructure facilities are evaluated against social, economic, climate, and hydrologic criteria across a set of disruptive climatological, economic, and social scenarios to identify robust initiatives and the most and least disruptive scenarios to the system. A particular innovation of this paper is the evaluation of hydrology data derived from satellites in determining water scarcity impact on individual energy facilities. The methods are demonstrated for a critical sector of Iraq’s economy: oil and natural gas. The demonstration includes 13 system-order criteria, 44 oil and gas initiatives within Iraq, and seven risk scenarios. The results include an accounting of the most and least disruptive scenarios to energy sector priorities and scenario-based system orderings to guide stakeholders in investment prioritization.

Keywords: Risk management; Infrastructure resilience; Environmental security; Economic development; Systems analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10669-024-09967-w

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