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What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data

Nicola Cassandro, Marco Centra, Dario Guarascio and Piero Esposito ()
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Nicola Cassandro: CEFOP-LUISS University
Marco Centra: National Institute for Public Policy Analysis, INAPP
Dario Guarascio: Sapienza University of Rome

Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, 2021, vol. 38, issue 3, No 13, 1109-1147

Abstract: Abstract Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011–2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor in Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043–1171, 2011) display—on average—higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. This result is driven by workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks and it is concentrated in high and medium–low skill occupations. In addition, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors—with higher risk in manufacturing and construction—confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities. Finally, by exploring the gender dimension, we find that that being in a routine-intensive occupation increases unemployment risk for male workers only.

Keywords: Unemployment; Routine-task; Worker-level data; Industry-level heterogeneity; Gender equality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 J24 J31 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s40888-021-00237-5

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