Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers

Federica Cappelli (), Caterina Conigliani (), Davide Consoli, Valeria Costantini and Elena Paglialunga
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Federica Cappelli: Roma Tre University
Caterina Conigliani: Roma Tre University

Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, 2023, vol. 40, issue 2, No 6, 517-560

Abstract: Abstract The paper focuses on the nexus between climate change and armed conflicts with an empirical analysis based on a panel of 2653 georeferenced cells for the African continent between 1990 and 2016. Our econometric approach addresses unobservable heterogeneity in predicting the probability of violent events and the persistency of conflicting behaviour over time. The proposed strategy also accounts for both changes in climatic conditions and spatial dynamics. The two main findings carry policy-relevant implications. First, changes in climatic conditions influence the probability of conflicts over large spatial ranges, thus suggesting that the design of adaptation policies to reduce climate vulnerability should account for multiple spatial interrelations. Second, the persistency of violence calls for planning adaptation strategies for climate resilience jointly designed with measures in support of peacekeeping.

Keywords: Africa; Armed conflicts; Climate change; Geographical spillovers; Spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 O13 O55 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s40888-022-00271-x

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