A macroeconomic assessment of the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan from administrative data

Giovanni Bartolomeo and Paolo D’Imperio ()
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Giovanni Bartolomeo: Sapienza University of Rome
Paolo D’Imperio: Ministry of Economy and Finance

Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, 2025, vol. 42, issue 2, No 8, 547 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents an ex-ante assessment of the macroeconomic and distributional impact of the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). We use a large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted to capture the effects of the RRP-financed expenditures. The original Plan is mapped onto the model using granular information sourced from the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance. The results suggest a sizable impact on key macroeconomic variables mainly driven by investments. The impact on the functional distribution of income is initially adverse for profits, which decline in the initial stages due to augmented labor and capital demand. However, profits suddenly move above their initial level after GDP increases. Overall, the selection and design of the public-investment programs emerge as a crucial determinant of the Plan’s success.

Keywords: NGEU; RRF; RRP; Recovery and Resilience Plan; Macroeconomic impact; Fiscal policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 E62 E65 F47 F54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s40888-024-00350-1

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