The diffusion of generics after patent expiry in Germany

Katharina Elisabeth Fischer () and Tom Stargardt ()
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Katharina Elisabeth Fischer: Universität Hamburg
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katharina Elisabeth Blankart

The European Journal of Health Economics, 2016, vol. 17, issue 8, No 10, 1027-1040

Abstract: Abstract To identify the influences on the diffusion of generics after patent expiry, we analyzed 65 generic entries using prescription data of a large German sickness fund between 2007 and 2012 in a sales model. According to theory, several elements are responsible for technology diffusion: (1) time reflecting the rate of adaption within the social system, (2) communication channels, and (3) the degree of incremental innovation, e.g., the modifications of existing active ingredient’s strength. We investigated diffusion in two ways: (1) generic market share (percentage of generic prescriptions of all prescriptions of a substance) and, (2) generic sales quantity (number of units sold) over time. We specified mixed regression models. Generic diffusion takes considerable time. An average generic market share of about 75 % was achieved not until 48 months. There was a positive effect of time since generic entry on generic market share (p

Keywords: Pharmaceutical industry; Market regulation; Off-patent markets; Product life cycle; Generic entry; Generic market share (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10198-015-0744-3

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