Optimising the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality and hospitalisations using an individual additive risk measuring approach based on a risk adjustment scheme

Danny Wende (), Dagmar Hertle, Claudia Schulte, Pedro Ballesteros and Uwe Repschläger
Additional contact information
Danny Wende: Bifg Institute of BARMER
Dagmar Hertle: Bifg Institute of BARMER
Claudia Schulte: Bifg Institute of BARMER
Pedro Ballesteros: Bifg Institute of BARMER
Uwe Repschläger: Bifg Institute of BARMER

The European Journal of Health Economics, 2022, vol. 23, issue 6, No 5, 969-978

Abstract: Abstract In this population-based cohort study, billing data from German statutory health insurance (BARMER, 10% of population) are used to develop a prioritisation model for COVID-19 vaccinations based on cumulative underlying conditions. Using a morbidity-based classification system, prevalence and risks for COVID-19-related hospitalisations, ventilations and deaths are estimated. Trisomies, behavioural and developmental disorders (relative risk: 2.09), dementia and organic psychoorganic syndromes (POS) (2.23) and (metastasised) malignant neoplasms (1.99) were identified as the most important conditions for escalations of COVID-19 infection. Moreover, optimal vaccination priority schedules for participants are established on the basis of individual cumulative escalation risk and are compared to the prioritisation scheme chosen by the German Government. We estimate how many people would have already received a vaccination prior to escalation. Vaccination schedules based on individual cumulative risk are shown to be 85% faster than random schedules in preventing deaths, and as much as 57% faster than the German approach, which was based primarily on age and specific diseases. In terms of hospitalisation avoidance, the individual cumulative risk approach was 51% and 28% faster. On this basis, it is concluded that using individual cumulative risk-based vaccination schedules, healthcare systems can be relieved and escalations more optimally avoided.

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccination prioritisation; Immunization strategy; Severe outcomes; Risk adjustment scheme; Additive risk measuring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C41 C63 H84 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10198-021-01408-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:eujhec:v:23:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s10198-021-01408-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10198/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10198-021-01408-8

Access Statistics for this article

The European Journal of Health Economics is currently edited by J.-M.G.v.d. Schulenburg

More articles in The European Journal of Health Economics from Springer, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().