Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Jacques Bughin, Michele Cincera, Evelyn Kiepfer, Dorota Reykowska, Florian Philippi, Marcin Żyszkiewicz, Rafal Ohme and Dirk Frank
Additional contact information
Jacques Bughin: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Evelyn Kiepfer: ISM Global Dynamics
Dorota Reykowska: Neurohm
Florian Philippi: ISM Global Dynamics
Marcin Żyszkiewicz: Neurohm
Rafal Ohme: Neurohm
Dirk Frank: ISM Global Dynamics

The European Journal of Health Economics, 2023, vol. 24, issue 1, No 4, 39-52

Abstract: Abstract This research uses discrete choice-based conjoint analysis that elicits the preference structure of German citizens when it comes to their timely intention to vaccinate. The focus is on the trade-offs between pharmaceuticals (vaccine) and "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs) such as lock-downs and social distancing measures, as well as the value of voluntary versus mandatory compliance to the citizens. Our results highlight three critical insights: (a) value of waiting: at 70% effective vaccine, 1/3 of citizens still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next 6 months rather than immediately; (b) costs of NPI constraints: an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by invasive NPI imposed for an extended period; (c) freedom of choice: voluntary compliance is preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lock-down measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, a quick shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€. Still, the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. At the same time, the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1500–2500€, depending on the rule analyzed. In comparison, the burden of extra complete lock-down and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lock-downs will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.

Keywords: COVID-19; Vaccine strategy; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Conjoint analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I12 J22 J23 J33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10198-022-01450-0

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