A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols

N. Shamsi Gamchi and M. Esmaeili ()
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N. Shamsi Gamchi: Alzahra University
M. Esmaeili: Alzahra University

The European Journal of Health Economics, 2023, vol. 24, issue 4, No 11, 633-646

Abstract: Abstract Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain different health protocols such as lockdown policy, mandatory use of face masks, and vaccination during the pandemics. Therefore, this study considers the case of COVID-19 with a SEQIR (susceptible–exposed–quarantined–infected–recovered) epidemic model and presents a novel prioritization technique to minimize the social and economic impacts of the lockdown policy. We use retail units as one of the affected parts to demonstrate how a vaccination plan may be more effective if individuals such as retailers were prioritized and age groups. In addition, we estimate the total required vaccine doses to control the epidemic disease and compute the number of vaccine doses supplied by various suppliers. The vaccine doses are determined using optimal control theory in the solution technique. In addition, we consider the effect of the mask using policy in the number of vaccine doses allocated to each priority group. The model’s performance is evaluated using an illustrative scenario based on a real case.

Keywords: Infectious disease; SEQIR epidemic model; Vaccine allocation; Parallel prioritization; Mandatory use of face mask; Optimal control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5

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