Error diagrams and temporal correlations in a fracture model with characteristic and power-law distributed avalanches

Y. Moreno (), M. Vázquez-Prada, J. Gómez and A. Pacheco

The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2003, vol. 34, issue 4, 489-494

Abstract: Forecasting failure events is one of the most important problems in fracture mechanics and related sciences. In this paper, we use the Molchan scheme to investigate the error diagrams in a fracture model which has the notable advantage of displaying two completely different regimes according to the heterogeneity of the system. In one regime, a characteristic event is observed while for the second regime a power-law spectrum of avalanches is obtained reminiscent of self-organized criticality. We find that both regimes are different when predicting large avalanches and that, in the second regime, there are non-trivial temporal correlations associated to clustering of large events. Finally, we extend the discussion to seismology, where both kinds of avalanche size distributions can be seen. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2003

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2003-00248-6

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