Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

Eugene B. Postnikov ()
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Eugene B. Postnikov: Kursk State University

The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2016, vol. 89, issue 1, 1-6

Abstract: Abstract This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.

Keywords: Statistical; and; Nonlinear; Physics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2015-50845-7

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