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Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data

Célestin Coquidé, Leonardo Ermann, José Lages and Dima L. Shepelyansky ()
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Célestin Coquidé: Institut UTINAM, OSU THETA, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, CNRS
Leonardo Ermann: Departamento de Física Teórica, GIyA, CNEA
Dima L. Shepelyansky: Laboratoire de Physique Théorique, IRSAMC, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS

The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2019, vol. 92, issue 8, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Using the United Nations COMTRADE database (United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/db/ (accessed January 2019)) we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004–2016. Our approach allows determining the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taking into account all direct and indirect trade pathways via all world countries exchanging 61 UN COMTRADE identified trade products. On the basis of this approach we present the influence of trade in petroleum and gas products from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia and Norway determining the sensitivity of each EU country. We show that the REGOMAX approach provides a new and more detailed analysis of trade influence propagation comparing to the usual approach based on export and import flows. Graphical abstract

Keywords: Statistical; and; Nonlinear; Physics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2019-100132-6

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