A Demographic Model of Measles Epidemics

S.R. Duncan, Susan Scott and C.J. Duncan*: ()
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S.R. Duncan: Department of Engineering Science
Susan Scott: University of Liverpool
C.J. Duncan*:: University of Liverpool

European Journal of Population, 1999, vol. 15, issue 2, No 3, 185-198

Abstract: Abstract Liverpool, U.K., 1863--1900, has been used as a model to explore the interaction between measles epidemics and the population dynamics in an overcrowded community with inadequate nutrition using a non-linear model which allows the estimation of certain underlying demographic parameters. The results are consistent with a system that is driven by an oscillation in the transmission parameter that is compounded of an oscillation in autumn temperatures (at the resonant frequency of the system, 2.4 years) and, secondarily, by an oscillation in wheat prices (wavelength = 5.3 years, twice that of the epidemics).

Keywords: Population Dynamic; Resonant Frequency; Measle; Public Finance; Demographic Parameter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1023/A:1006224902376

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