The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe

Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe

David E. Bloom (), David Canning, Günther Fink and Jocelyn E. Finlay
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David E. Bloom: Harvard School of Public Health, Program on the Global Demography of Aging
Jocelyn E. Finlay: Harvard School of Public Health, Program on the Global Demography of Aging

European Journal of Population, 2010, vol. 26, issue 2, No 2, 158 pages

Abstract: Abstract We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.

Keywords: Fertility; Population dynamics; Economic growth; Fécondité; Dynamique des populations; Croissance économique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10680-009-9182-1

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