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Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern

Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon (), Manuel Pérez-Trujillo () and Isabel Neira ()
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Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon: Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

European Journal of Population, 2017, vol. 33, issue 1, 1-31

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyses empirically the relationship between economic development and fertility. Through a new sample selection and quantile regression, it investigates whether there is an inverse J-shaped pattern between these two variables, and, if so, whether it depends on development and fertility levels. Our results confirm that the inverse J-shaped pattern exists, but only when a certain level of economic development is attained. Results also suggest an innovative finding: the J-shape depends not only on the development but also on the fertility level. The higher the fertility rate, the higher the GDP per capita needed to reverse fertility decline, and the faster the negative and positive segments of the J-shape fall and grow.

Keywords: J-shaped pattern; Fertility rate; Economic development; Quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-016-9382-4