Timing the market: the economic value of price extremes

Haibin Xie () and Shouyang Wang ()
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Haibin Xie: University of International Business and Economics
Shouyang Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Financial Innovation, 2018, vol. 4, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: Abstract By decomposing asset returns into potential maximum gain (PMG) and potential maximum loss (PML) with price extremes, this study empirically investigated the relationships between PMG and PML. We found significant asymmetry between PMG and PML. PML significantly contributed to forecasting PMG but not vice versa. We further explored the power of this asymmetry for predicting asset returns and found it could significantly improve asset return predictability in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. Investors who incorporate this asymmetry into their investment decisions can get substantial utility gains. This asymmetry remains significant even when controlling for macroeconomic variables, technical indicators, market sentiment, and skewness. Moreover, this asymmetry was found to be quite general across different countries.

Keywords: Price extremes; Return decomposition; Asymmetry; Return predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1186/s40854-018-0110-4

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