Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain

Veli Yilanci, Önder Özgür () and Muhammed Sehid Gorus

Financial Innovation, 2021, vol. 7, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the stock price–economic activity nexus in 12 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by employing monthly data over the period 1981:1–2018:3. For this purpose, the study uses Granger causality in the frequency domain in the panel setting by decomposing the symmetric and asymmetric fluctuations. This methodology determines whether the predictive power of interested variables is concentrated on quickly, moderately, or slowly fluctuating components. Our findings show that the stock prices have predictive power for future long-term economic activity in the panel setting. However, economic activity has more reliable information for stock prices for negative components. Additionally, empirical findings for asymmetric shocks are not fully consistent with those of symmetric ones. Besides, the country-specific results provide different causal linkages across members and frequencies. These findings may provide valuable information for policymakers to design proper and effective policies in OECD countries regarding the stock market and economic activity nexus.

Keywords: Asymmetric causality; Economic activity; Frequency domain; OECD countries; Panel data; Stock prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-020-00221-1 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-00221-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... nomics/journal/40589

DOI: 10.1186/s40854-020-00221-1

Access Statistics for this article

Financial Innovation is currently edited by J. Leon Zhao and Zongyi

More articles in Financial Innovation from Springer, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().