The contribution of tourism on GDP growth and sustainable tourism development in Africa

Mehdi Seraj (), Oliver Chika Ike () and Huseyin Ozdeser ()
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Mehdi Seraj: Near East University
Oliver Chika Ike: Near East University
Huseyin Ozdeser: Near East University

Future Business Journal, 2025, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: Abstract Several African nations actively pursue economic diversification and sustainable development by promoting tourism. Given this, the study aims to thoroughly analyze the contribution of tourism to the GDP growth of six African Nations, specifically Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia, and Uganda, utilizing data from the World Bank Development Indicator spanning from 1999 to 2020. The study employed the Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR) for the analysis and found that despite the prevailing assumptions of the tourism-led hypothesis and the emerging literature emphasizing the potential influence of tourism on GDP growth. The empirical findings of Westerlund’s (OBES 69:709–748, 2007) cointegration test indicate a lack of a statistically significant long-term relationship between tourism and GDP growth at 1% and 5% significance levels. However, there is an indication of a potential relationship at the 10% significance level, contingent upon the implementation of appropriate policies by the countries. Notably, this underscores the importance of promoting policies that stimulate the Keynesian multiplier effect. Additionally, the MMQR output suggests that policymakers should prioritize policies aimed at increasing Foreign Direct Investment to support the identified tendencies. This academic analysis provides valuable insights into the intricate relationship between tourism and GDP growth in these African countries, highlighting important implications for policymaking and economic development strategies.

Keywords: Tourism; GDP growth; Sustainable development; MMQR model; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1186/s43093-025-00532-8

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