Impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on obesity and obesity-related health conditions: evidence from Washington State’s soft drink syrup tax

Seung-Hun Chung () and Lei Xu ()
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Seung-Hun Chung: Yale University
Lei Xu: The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center

Health Economics Review, 2025, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Background Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented in various regions as a public health strategy to reduce obesity and associated chronic diseases. While previous research has examined the effectiveness of these taxes, findings remain mixed regarding their impact on long-term health outcomes. This study assesses the effect of Washington State’s 2009 soft drink syrup tax on obesity prevalence and related health conditions. This study mitigates selection bias and cross-border purchasing effects, providing a clear picture of the policy’s effectiveness. Methods We employ the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the causal impact of the syrup tax on obesity rates and obesity-related diseases using 1996–2021 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the American Community Survey (ACS). The SCM constructs a counterfactual state to compare against Washington’s post-tax obesity trends. Key outcome variables include obesity rates (Body Mass Index [BMI] $$\ge$$ ≥ 30 and BMI $$\ge$$ ≥ 35), prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol. Statistical significance is determined using Monte Carlo simulations ( $$n=999$$ n = 999 ) with false discovery rate corrections ( $$p

Keywords: Sugar-sweetened beverage tax; SSB tax; Obesity; Health; Chronic disease; Soft drink tax; Synthetic difference-in-difference method; DID (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1186/s13561-025-00664-1

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