Hip fracture incidence 2003–2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study

Hans Concin, Wolfgang Brozek (), Karl-Peter Benedetto, Hartmut Häfele, Joachim Kopf, Thomas Bärenzung, Richard Schnetzer, Christian Schenk, Elmar Stimpfl, Ursula Waheed-Hutter, Hanno Ulmer, Kilian Rapp, Elisabeth Zwettler and Gabriele Nagel
Additional contact information
Hans Concin: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine
Wolfgang Brozek: Hanusch Hospital
Karl-Peter Benedetto: Landeskrankenhaus Feldkirch
Hartmut Häfele: Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz
Joachim Kopf: Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz
Thomas Bärenzung: Landeskrankenhaus Bludenz
Richard Schnetzer: Krankenhaus Dornbirn
Christian Schenk: Sanatorium Schruns
Elmar Stimpfl: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine
Ursula Waheed-Hutter: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine
Hanno Ulmer: Innsbruck Medical University
Kilian Rapp: Robert-Bosch-Hospital
Elisabeth Zwettler: Hanusch Hospital
Gabriele Nagel: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine

International Journal of Public Health, 2016, vol. 61, issue 9, No 5, 1030 pages

Abstract: Abstract Objectives Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. Methods Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003–2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003–2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. Results Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005–2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. Conclusions We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

Keywords: Hip fracture incidence; Osteoporosis; Austria; Vorarlberg; Prognosis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s00038-016-0878-9

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