Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978–2013

Sophia Lin, Take Naseri, Christine Linhart, Stephen Morrell, Richard Taylor (), Stephen T. Mcgarvey, Dianna J. Magliano and Paul Zimmet
Additional contact information
Sophia Lin: University of New South Wales
Take Naseri: Ministry of Health
Christine Linhart: University of New South Wales
Stephen Morrell: University of New South Wales
Richard Taylor: University of New South Wales
Stephen T. Mcgarvey: Brown University
Dianna J. Magliano: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute
Paul Zimmet: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute

International Journal of Public Health, 2017, vol. 62, issue 6, No 8, 687-694

Abstract: Abstract Objectives This study estimates type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence in Samoans aged 25–64 years from sequential, irregularly spaced, cross-sectional population prevalence surveys. Methods T2DM prevalence from eight population surveys conducted over 1978–2013 (n = 12,516) was adjusted for census region, sex, and 5-year age group to the nearest previous census. Annual T2DM incidence was calculated from adjusted prevalences (by sex), using birth cohorts constructed from age-period matrices. Projections of T2DM incidence to 2020 were estimated, based on various scenarios of population weight change using Poisson regression. Results Over 1978–2013, T2DM incidence was estimated to increase from 1.12 to 8.44 per 1000 person-years in men and from 2.55 to 8.04 per 1000 in women. Based on regression modeling, if mean population weight was stabilized from 2013, absolute incidence reductions of 0.9 per 1000 person-years (7% lower) are predicted in 2020, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. Conclusions T2DM incidence can be calculated from irregularly conducted population risk factor surveys which may be useful in developing countries with limited resources.

Keywords: Developing Country; Incidence; Pacific Islands; Prevalence; Samoa; Type 2 diabetes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-0961-x

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