The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

Li-Ming Ho, Christian Schafferer, Jie-Min Lee (), Chun-Yuan Yeh and Chi-Jung Hsieh
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Li-Ming Ho: National Kaohsiung Marine University
Christian Schafferer: Overseas Chinese University
Jie-Min Lee: National Kaohsiung Marine University
Chun-Yuan Yeh: Overseas Chinese University
Chi-Jung Hsieh: National Changhua University of Education

International Journal of Public Health, 2017, vol. 62, issue 8, No 8, 899-909

Abstract: Abstract Objectives This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Methods Using panel data from the 1999–2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Results Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Conclusions Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Keywords: Cigarette consumption; Price increases; Price elasticity; Smoking-related deaths; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-0980-7

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