Combined forecasting of civil aviation passenger volume based on ARIMA-REGRESSION

Cheng Li ()
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Cheng Li: Shanghai University of Engineering Science

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2019, vol. 10, issue 5, No 7, 945-952

Abstract: Abstract A combined forecasting analysis method based on ARIMA-REGRESSION is proposed in this paper, with the IOWHA operator concept and the forecasting analysis on various deriving as foundation. This paper first constructed the forecasting model of single item, and then used the multiple regression analysis model and the time series ARIMA model to predict the annual civil aviation passenger volume in China. On the basis of the single item, a new IOWHA operator-based combined forecasting model is established, giving an accurate mathematical programming method to determine the weight, and further analyze the forecast. It is proved that the accuracy of prediction can be effectively improved, and the forecasting risk can also be reduced, with the combined forecasting method based on ARIMA-REGRESSION.

Keywords: Civil aviation passenger volume; Regression analysis; ARIMA model; Combination forecasting; IOWHA operator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s13198-019-00825-6

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