Using catastrophe theory to analyze subway fire accidents

Xiaofei Lin, Shouxin Song, Huaiyuan Zhai (), Pengwei Yuan and Mingli Chen
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Xiaofei Lin: Beijing Jiaotong University
Shouxin Song: Beijing Jiaotong University
Huaiyuan Zhai: Beijing Jiaotong University
Pengwei Yuan: University of Jinan
Mingli Chen: Beijing Jiaotong University

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, No 15, 223-235

Abstract: Abstract Catastrophe theory can describe a continuous process that is undergoing abrupt changes. A dynamic process can be considered to be a swallowtail catastrophe if it has the following six qualities: bimodality, divergence, sudden transitions, hysteresis, inaccessibility and irreversibility. In this paper, the swallowtail catastrophe model is applied to describe the changing dynamic process of subway fire accidents. This dynamic process is also proved to have the six qualities of a swallowtail catastrophe. By using the swallowtail catastrophe model, we construct a model for the subway fire accidents, and we present analyses of subway fire accidents. On the basis of the model and analyses, the dynamic changes in the subway fire accident evolution process can be described with a novel approach. The causes of fire accidents in subways are also discussed, from the perspective of the fire triangle and four elements of an accident. We hope that this study’s theoretical descriptions and discussion of subway fire accidents will facilitate a profound analysis of subway safety.

Keywords: Subway; Fire accident; Swallowtail catastrophe; Fire triangle; Fault tree analysis (FTA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s13198-019-00942-2

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