Stochastic models on the transmission of novel COVID-19

Bimal Kumar Mishra ()
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Bimal Kumar Mishra: Markham College of Commerce

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2022, vol. 13, issue 2, No 4, 599-603

Abstract: Abstract New diseases have always been part of humanity’s world, and some of them had created severe threat to human kind and challenge to the researchers and medical practitioners. The deadly novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus -2) said to be COVID-19, the name given by WHO on February 11, 2020, is presently the most disastrous infectious disease. In the present paper our basic objective is to assess the risk of spreading the disease in human population and is measured in terms of probability. The proposed stochastic models help us to understand the probability of infection to n number of customers when these customers have spent time t in any system, say, shopping mall or public transportation or restaurant. Stochastic models are developed with arrival rate of the customers towards the system to be considered as a Poisson distribution and service time following an exponential distribution. A special case of cardiac centre is considered in this paper, where the risk of COVID-19 is highly contagion, with limited number of beds and doctors.

Keywords: Poisson distribution; Exponential distribution; COVID-19; Stochastic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s13198-021-01312-7

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