Predicting the future trends for circular economy

Renuka Nagpal (), Daksh Rana (), Nuaim Bashir Mir (), Aditya Dwivedi () and Deepti Mehrotra ()
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Renuka Nagpal: Amity University Uttar Pradesh
Daksh Rana: Amity University Uttar Pradesh
Nuaim Bashir Mir: Amity University Uttar Pradesh
Aditya Dwivedi: Amity University Uttar Pradesh
Deepti Mehrotra: Amity University Uttar Pradesh

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2024, vol. 15, issue 10, No 15, 4905-4922

Abstract: Abstract Considering sustainability and resource efficiency goals, the circular economy has gained significant attention as a promising economic model. For the country’s sustainable development, policymakers need to design a new economic framework that targets the reduction of waste generation and the enhancement of its usage. To achieve this, countries worldwide focus on total municipal waste generation and its disposal methods with a focus on recycling. Considering this need, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) explored twelve factors associated with the Circular Economy (CE) for European countries. For a better understanding, a correlation analysis was conducted on total municipal waste generation and recycling for eleven countries. Trend analysis is also performed to understand how countries should plan their future policy designs while keeping sustainability in the limelight. The study employs an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict trends in two crucial components of the CE: municipal waste generation and recycling rates. The predicting modelling approach will provide a targeted measure for policymakers to handle waste efficiently.

Keywords: Circular economy; Total municipal Waste generation; Recycling rates; ARIMA; Forecasting models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s13198-024-02501-w

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