Temporal forecasting by converting stochastic behaviour into a stable pattern in electric grid

Akram Qashou (), Sufian Yousef (), Firas Hazzaa () and Kahtan Aziz ()
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Akram Qashou: Anglia Ruskin University
Sufian Yousef: Anglia Ruskin University
Firas Hazzaa: Anglia Ruskin University
Kahtan Aziz: Anglia Ruskin University

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2024, vol. 15, issue 9, No 12, 4426-4442

Abstract: Abstract The malfunction variables of power stations are related to the areas of weather, physical structure, control, and load behavior. To predict temporal power failure is difficult due to their unpredictable characteristics. As high accuracy is normally required, the estimation of failures of short-term temporal prediction is highly difficult. This study presents a method for converting stochastic behavior into a stable pattern, which can subsequently be used in a short-term estimator. For this conversion, K-means clustering is employed, followed by long-short-term memory and gated recurrent unit algorithms are used to perform the short-term estimation. The environment, the operation, and the generated signal factors are all simulated using mathematical models. Weather parameters and load samples have been collected as part of a dataset. Monte-Carlo simulation using MATLAB programming has been used to conduct experimental estimation of failures. The estimated failures of the experiment are then compared with the actual system temporal failures and found to be in good match. Therefore, to address the gap in knowledge for any future power grid estimated failures, the achieved results in this paper form good basis for a testbed to estimate any grid future failures.

Keywords: Smart home; Short-term prediction; Stochastic behavior; K-means clustering algorithm; LSTM; GRU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s13198-024-02454-0

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