Evaluating thermo-hydraulics uncertainties of success criteria in probabilistic risk assessment

Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni (), Kaveh Karimi and Faramarz Yousefpour
Additional contact information
Seyed Mohsen Hoseyni: Islamic Azad University
Kaveh Karimi: Islamic Azad University
Faramarz Yousefpour: Nuclear Science and Technology Research Center

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2017, vol. 8, issue 3, No 12, 635-645

Abstract: Abstract Success criteria analysis in nuclear power plants is based on thermo-hydraulics (TH) evaluation of the plant response to postulated accidents for the development of a risk model. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) uncertainties originate from diverse sources, including uncertainty of success criteria. A comprehensive uncertainty treatment methodology is therefore needed for the quantification of PRA uncertainty considering the success criteria uncertainty. This paper covers the topic and introduces a systematic framework for this purpose. The proposed methodology is capable of including model uncertainty of success criteria in the plant risk model which is not formally performed in industrial practice. An extension is proposed for the traditional event trees to include a new top event for taking the effect of TH uncertainties into account. The required probability density function for this top event is obtained by performing TH uncertainty analysis and statistical interpretation of the obtained results. The application of the methodology is sought by its implementation on real case of loss of coolant accident in a PWR type nuclear power plant.

Keywords: Success criteria analysis; Uncertainty; Level-1 PRA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-016-0547-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:8:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13198-016-0547-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/engineering/journal/13198

DOI: 10.1007/s13198-016-0547-7

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management is currently edited by P.K. Kapur, A.K. Verma and U. Kumar

More articles in International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management from Springer, The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().