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A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress

Sanjay Sehgal (), Ritesh Kumar Mishra () and Ajay Jaisawal ()
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Sanjay Sehgal: University of Delhi
Ritesh Kumar Mishra: University of Delhi
Ajay Jaisawal: University of Delhi

Indian Economic Review, 2021, vol. 56, issue 2, No 7, 435-461

Abstract: Abstract The aim of this paper is to explore the macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress using a data from the Indian corporate sector. We also consider a set of quasi-macro variables to develop a hybrid model of financial distress. For this purpose, we use accounting information-based three-factor criteria to construct a series for probability of financial distress of firms. We initially use a systematic variable selection approach to develop alternative models of financial distress and then apply the bounds test to establish a long-run equilibrium relationship between financial distress of firms and its determinants. We find that macroeconomic factors play crucial role in determining financial distress. Results suggest that aggregate output, flow of international funds, international demand, and corporate profitability are negatively associated with probability of financial distress. However, periods of high inflation may not be beneficial as the results suggest that a high inflation leads to high financial distress. The findings are important in the sense that movement in these macroeconomic and quasi-macro factors can be useful in monitoring the buildup of risk or financial distress in the balance sheet of firms over time. The set of indicators identified in the study can be used to develop an efficient distress prediction models.

Keywords: Corporate financial distress; Profitability; Macroeconomy; ARDL; FMOLS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 G33 P11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s41775-021-00119-4

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