Small-area population forecasting in a segregated city using density-functional fluctuation theory

Yuchao Chen (), Yunus A. Kinkhabwala (), Boris Barron (), Matthew Hall (), Tomás A. Arias () and Itai Cohen ()
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Yuchao Chen: Cornell University
Yunus A. Kinkhabwala: Cornell University
Boris Barron: Cornell University
Matthew Hall: Cornell University
Tomás A. Arias: Cornell University
Itai Cohen: Cornell University

Journal of Computational Social Science, 2024, vol. 7, issue 3, No 2, 2255-2275

Abstract: Abstract Policy decisions concerning housing, transportation, and resource allocation would all benefit from accurate small-area population forecasts. However, despite the success of regional-scale migration models, developing neighborhood-scale forecasts remains a challenge due to the complex nature of residential choice. Here, we introduce an innovative approach to this challenge by extending density-functional fluctuation theory (DFFT), a proven approach for modeling group spatial behavior in biological systems, to predict small-area population shifts over time. The DFFT method uses observed fluctuations in small-area populations to disentangle and extract effective social and spatial drivers of segregation, and then uses this information to forecast intra-regional migration. To demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a controlled setting, we consider a simulated city constructed from a Schelling-type model. Our findings indicate that even without direct access to the underlying agent preferences, DFFT accurately predicts how broader demographic changes at the city scale percolate to small-area populations. In particular, our results demonstrate the ability of DFFT to incorporate the impacts of segregation into small-area population forecasting using interactions inferred solely from steady-state population count data.

Keywords: Small-area forecasts; Residential choice; Migration; Schelling model; Density-functional fluctuation theory; Segregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s42001-024-00305-3

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