The response of state employment to oil price volatility

Wei Kang (), David Penn () and Joachim Zietz

Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015, vol. 39, issue 3, 478-500

Abstract: Unobserved component models are estimated on monthly data over the period 1983 to 2010 to explain the response of U.S. state employment to oil price volatility. Univariate models are estimated for each state, multivariate models for several groups of states. For most states, oil price volatility has a statistically significant and negative impact on employment after about a quarter of a year. The impact is more pronounced for states with large GDP shares in construction, auto production, retail, and the hospitality industry. States with emphasis on knowledge intensive industries and reliance on nuclear power are much less affected. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Keywords: State employment; Oil price volatility; GARCH; Unobserved component model; JEL Classification; R23; Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s12197-013-9252-4

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