A comment on Paul and Weinbach’s (2005) “Bettor preferences and efficient markets in totals markets”

James Francisco () and Evan Moore ()
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James Francisco: AUM College of Public Policy and Justice
Evan Moore: AUM College of Public Policy and Justice

Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018, vol. 42, issue 4, No 13, 836-840

Abstract: Abstract Paul and Weinbach (J Econ Financ 29:409–415, 2005) tested the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in college and arena football betting markets. The authors found that the totals markets were not efficient, with the “over” bet overvalued, but suggested the likelihood that this would change over time as bettors incorporated more information. In this paper, we find, based on a more recent NCAA college football dataset, that the market has largely corrected itself. The totals market in major college football over the period of 2003–2015 shows an efficient market in that neither a naïve strategy of betting “over” nor “under” is profitable.

Keywords: College football; Financial markets; Gambling; Recreation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9437-y

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