Stock and oil price returns in international markets: Identifying short and long-run effects

Theophilus Teye Osah () and Andre Varella Mollick ()
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Theophilus Teye Osah: University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Andre Varella Mollick: University of Texas Rio Grande Valley

Journal of Economics and Finance, 2023, vol. 47, issue 1, No 6, 116-141

Abstract: Abstract This paper examines how stock returns respond to oil prices with monthly data from 1990 to 2020 for 12 major economies: 6 oil-exporting countries and 6 oil-importing countries. Combining short and long-run empirical approaches in country-by-country analyses, we first document varying effects of oil price returns in the short-term, while increases in volatility (changes in VIX or geopolitical risk) have negative effects on stock markets. Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimators show in the long-run positive oil price effects on stock markets for oil-exporters and relatively weaker negative evidence for oil-importers. Interest rate increases have strong negative effects in the long run. Panel analyses shed further light on these results along with structural breaks. Our findings suggest complementary insights from the DOLS long-run approach: oil prices and bond yields have expected signs and volatility has mixed effects on stock markets.

Keywords: Geopolitical risks; Interest rates; Oil prices; Stock returns; VIX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D25 F65 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s12197-022-09602-x

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