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Interim information and managerial risk taking in professional basketball

Wen-Jhan Jane ()
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Wen-Jhan Jane: Shih Hsin University

The Japanese Economic Review, 2025, vol. 76, issue 1, No 5, 163-194

Abstract: Abstract This paper examines whether the substitution decisions, under conditions of paper (or realized) losses, stimulate (or moderate) managerial risk taking. Using data on roster changes and field goal attempts (FGAs) in National Basketball Association (NBA) games, I find strong evidence of the significantly causal effects of paper and realized losses (or gains) on the decisions regarding managerial risk taking. While coaches increase their level of risk taking after experiencing the paper losses of lagging behind in the substitution strategy within a game, the effects of realized gains from leading wins, however, offer evidence of higher risk-seeking in the wake of prior wins. Furthermore, the evidence that players lagging behind increase their risk taking in the final stages of the tournament is robust in empirical settings for the shooting decisions. Finally, a coach with longer tenure engages in higher risk taking in substitutions, whereas a team with an older coach of shorter tenure engages in more risk taking in risky 3-point FGAs.

Keywords: House money; Paper losses; National Basketball Association; Risk taking; Tournaments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s42973-023-00140-7

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