Economics at your fingertips  

Experimental guidance for eliciting beliefs with the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism

Ingrid Burfurd () and Tom Wilkening
Additional contact information
Ingrid Burfurd: The University of Melbourne

Journal of the Economic Science Association, 2018, vol. 4, issue 1, 15-28

Abstract: Abstract We compare different implementations of the Stochastic Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (SBDM) belief elicitation mechanism, which is theoretically elegant but challenging to implement. In a first experiment, we compare three common formats of the mechanism in terms of speed and data quality. We find that all formats yield reports with similar levels of accuracy and precision, but that the instructions and reporting format adapted from Hao and Houser (J Risk Uncertain 44(2):161–180 2012) is significantly faster to implement. We use this format in a second experiment in which we vary the delivery method and quiz procedure. Dropping the pre-experiment quiz significantly compromises the accuracy of subject’s reports and leads to a dramatic spike in boundary reports. However, switching between electronic and paper-based instructions and quizzes does not affect the accuracy or precision of subjects’ reports.

Keywords: Beliefs; Elicitation; Prediction accuracy; Methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D81 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Economic Science Association is currently edited by Nikos Nikiforakis and Robert Slonim

More articles in Journal of the Economic Science Association from Springer, Economic Science Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2019-04-09
Handle: RePEc:spr:jesaex:v:4:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40881-018-0046-5