The Short-Term Effects of COVID-19 on the Manufacturing Industry in Colombia: Unveiling Insights through a Natural and Exogenous Experiment

Carlos David Cardona Arenas (), Daniel Osorio Barreto () and Diego Manrique Cabezas ()
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Carlos David Cardona Arenas: Universidad de Manizales
Daniel Osorio Barreto: Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales
Diego Manrique Cabezas: Universidad Católica Luis Amigo

Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, No 25, 712 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study analyzes the economic impact caused by the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by the confinement in the second and third quarters of 2020, on the Colombian manufacturing industry. It implemented a Difference-in-Difference (Dif-in-Dif) set-up model design; in this case, it measures the impacts of the industrial production index on the Colombian manufacturing industry, employment, manufacturing exports, and imports, considering the COVID-19 crisis as a random natural experiment. For this, the Dif-in-Dif methodology was used for time series data and variables to describe the behavior progress of COVID-19 in Colombia. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a statistically significant impact on the industrial manufacturing production index, the number of employed individuals in the manufacturing sector, and the manufacturing of imports, which signifies a negative impact concerning the number of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 and the number of deaths and recoveries.

Keywords: COVID-19; Impact evaluation; Dif-in-Dif; Manufacturing industry; C21; C52; L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s13132-024-01927-8

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