Projecting the impact of COVID-19 on education and intergenerational mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Guido Neidhöfer (), Nora Lustig and Patricio Larroulet
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Guido Neidhöfer: Mannheim, Germany, and Turkish-German University
Nora Lustig: Tulane University
Patricio Larroulet: Emberlink

The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2025, vol. 23, issue 2, No 4, 396 pages

Abstract: Abstract Using microsimulations, we project the effect of instructional losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates and intergenerational mobility of education in eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates could decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because, for men, the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. A small additional impact on girls’ education due to the potential rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education in the eight Sub-Saharan countries in our sample is expected to decrease, on average, by 10%.

Keywords: COVID-19; Lockdowns; Human capital; School closures; Intergenerational persistence; Education; Inequality; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I24 I38 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10888-024-09648-3

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