Preliminary Data Linking American Consumer Perceptions with Unauthorized Migration to the U.S

Amanda Venta (), Ericka Ball Cooper, Justin Bristow and Enrique Venta
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Amanda Venta: Sam Houston State University
Ericka Ball Cooper: Sam Houston State University
Justin Bristow: U.S. Border Patrol, Department of Homeland Security
Enrique Venta: Lamar University

Journal of International Migration and Integration, 2019, vol. 20, issue 1, No 16, 279-290

Abstract: Abstract Unauthorized migration to the U.S. is frequent, though economic predictors are understudied. This study examined the predictive utility of U.S. economic metrics in relation to unauthorized migration 2000–2016. Findings indicated that economic metrics add significant predictive power to models predicting unauthorized migration up to 4 months later. The most predictive metric was the Consumer Confidence Index, indicating that the perception of U.S. economic health—rather than objective parameterization—is most relevant. To our knowledge, this is the first study to consider the Consumer Confidence Index and examine U.S. economic metrics over the last decade, in relation to unauthorized migration.

Keywords: Migration; Economics; Southwest; Mexico; Unauthorized (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s12134-018-0612-y

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