Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

George Hondroyiannis and Evangelia Papapetrou ()
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Evangelia Papapetrou: University of Athens, El. Venizelou 21,102 50 Athens, Greece and Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department

Journal of Population Economics, 2002, vol. 15, issue 2, 242 pages

Abstract: Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960-96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process.

Keywords: Fertility; ·; infant; mortality; ·; VECM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 I12 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-05-13
Note: Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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