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Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic

Yoo-Mi Chin and Nicholas Wilson ()
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Yoo-Mi Chin: Baylor University

Journal of Population Economics, 2018, vol. 31, issue 2, No 4, 429-451

Abstract: Abstract A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

Keywords: Disease; Fertility; HIV/AIDS; Instrumental variable regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 J13 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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